Pinduoduo to outpace JD, Alibaba in GMV by 2024, says report

China’s Pinduoduo is set to overtake rivals JD.com and Alibaba in terms of gross merchandise value (GMV) growth by 2024, according to a Morgan Stanley report.

For 2022, both Pinduoduo and JD.com are evenly placed with 15.3% and 15% growth rates, respectively. However, the report estimates that by 2024, Pinduoduo will surge ahead at 17.6% while JD.com will maintain its pace at 15.5%. Alibaba will grow 8% during the same period.

Image credit: Morgan Stanley

Pinduoduo is estimated to have a 17.5% share in China’s ecommerce market by 2024, while Alibaba will retain its top position with a 42.1% share.

Overall, China’s ecommerce industry is expected to surge 2.4% year over year (YoY) in terms of GMV in 2022 and will be worth 22.6 trillion yuan (US$3.3 trillion) by 2024, up from the current estimates of US$2.5 trillion.

Source: Morgan Stanley

The research also gives an overview of top online verticals in China: recruitment, property, auto, and travel booking.

China’s online property sector saw the brokerage penetration hit 32.1% in 2021 for new homes. For existing homes, the brokerage penetration stood at 80.8%.

Interestingly, sales of new homes rose 5% in 2021, while sales for existing homes dropped by -1% in the same period.

Source: Morgan Stanley

The report also shows increasing penetration of China’s auto marketplaces. On the used-car marketplaces, the sales volume jumped 47% YoY in 2021. This is despite the fact that sales of pre-owned vehicles in China are much lower than in markets such as Japan, Germany, Korea, France, UK, and the US.