Facebook probably won’t get into China, and it shouldn’t want to

Zuck in Beijing. Image credit: Zuckerberg’s Facebook.

As seems to be his wont from time to time, Mark Zuckerberg has been in the China news again of late, doing things like running around in Beijing’s cancerous air, and meeting with China’s head of propaganda. The goal, as far as anyone can tell, is to try to convince Chinese officials to let Facebook into the country.

Ain’t gonna happen…

My former colleague Josh Horwitz has already written a piece about what Facebook would have to do to get its service into China, and the answer isn’t pretty. It would probably have to form a joint venture with a local internet company, build a service that was completely segregated from the rest of the world’s Facebook users, construct massive censorship and filtering systems to ensure that Chinese user-generated content could be controlled, and store all of its China-related data on Chinese servers.

Even if Facebook was willing to make all of those concessions, though – and that’s not a given considering the negative PR it would generate for Facebook at home – there’s little reason for China’s government to let Facebook in.

What does this guy stand to gain from letting Facebook into a Chinese-dominated market? Not much. (Photo by Foreign and Commonwealth Office

China’s government stands to gain virtually nothing from Facebook entering the country. The country’s social media market is currently dominated entirely by domestic companies. Even if Facebook formed a joint-venture, why would China’s government want to hand some of the lucrative social media market to a foreign firm voluntarily? The status quo, where only Chinese companies benefit from China’s social media market, is better economically.

Having China’s social media controlled by Chinese firms is also better for information control, because even if Facebook makes concessions, the risks to China’s regime are still significant. Facebook could get tired of taking flak at home for censoring user content in China, and opt pull back out of China (just like Google did), causing international embarrassment and loss of face for China’s leaders.

When considering any kind of deal, you have to factor in what both parties stand to gain. In the case of Facebook entering China, what Facebook gains is clear. But what does China gain, from authorities’ perspective? Perhaps a slight PR victory, and a high-profile demonstration of Xi Jinping’s “internet sovereignty” principle in action. But is that really worth the price of handing a slice of the world’s biggest social media market to a foreign company? It seems unlikely.

…and Facebook shouldn’t want it to

But honestly, authorities biting on Zuckerberg’s pitch might be the worst possible outcome for Facebook anyway. Zuckerberg seems to be operating with the assumption that Chinese users would actually want to join if they had the chance. But after an early burst of interest generated by Facebook’s international fame and the novelty factor, Facebook would have little chance for sustained success in the Chinese market.

Facebook launching in China would be like Myspace relaunching in the US

Here’s the thing: as far as the actual product goes, China already had a Facebook. It had a few, actually. The most popular ones were called Renren and Kaixin001, but all of these sites fell out of fashion years ago as newer and more mobile-friendly forms of social media like Weibo and then WeChat came along. These days, there seems to be very little interest in Facebook’s desktop-based, profile-centric form of social networking in China.

So if Facebook does enter China, after the initial excitement dies down, it’ll be left offering a product that feels woefully out of date, years behind the rest of the social media market. Unless Facebook makes major changes to its platform for China, its launch there would be like Myspace relaunching in the US: a relic of a bygone age that might generate some initial interest based on novelty and nostalgia, but with little hope for long-term success.

You know what, I’m just going to say it: WeChat is a vastly superior product. I’m sorry, Facebook fans, but it’s true. You can order food, book movie tickets, chat with friends, follow celebrities, pay for your groceries, listen to music, watch movies, play games, and much more all from within WeChat. With Facebook, you have to download a whole separate app just to be able to chat with friends! Why, exactly, would Chinese users want to go back to the days when social networks were just profiles and friend-generated link aggregators? They’ve got their friends and their favorite content and much more in WeChat already.