Opinion: Why startups need more vaporware and the ‘Elon Musk effect’ to innovate

Photo credit: Dan Taylor.

All the news about artificial intelligence have been boring me recently. I could group tons of news articles on AI into disputes around the social and ethical implications that AI may or may not bring, behind projects by tech titans like Google’s AlphaGo and Elon Musk’s “neural lace.”

After the initial thrill of Musk’s idea wore off (OK, it probably won’t ever wear off completely), there are a few new ideas that have been attracting my attention. With boredom creeping in, I’ve concluded that we might need more vaporware to drive innovation and inspiration.

Definition of vaporware

Vaporware is a product or service that has been announced and/or is being developed but very often never released. The term can also refer to products or services that are released far behind schedule or heavily promoted but do not exist beyond the idea or the minimum viable product (MVP) stage.

Some people say that vaporware is a kind of marketing strategy to promote a new technology or product in advance, little more than hot air. But if you know firsthand the tough process behind developing something new, you will know that such innovation cannot be born by marketing efforts alone. It was written that vaporware almost inevitably falls into the category “better late than never.”

Daring to dream big

I believe that more vaporware—the moonshot projects that excite us to get out of bed every morning (at least for those of us who are in the tech industry)—from tech companies and startups will actually drive innovation. Futuristic cars like those we’ve seen from Faraday Future or the ambitious project of Chinese billionaire Jia Yueting excite us even though we are rightly skeptical about whether and when they will be available to consumers.

Though vaporware might generate ethical debate and criticism in terms of business practice, it has been an influential strategy for tech companies like Google. The whole concept of a “Google joke” has become just another synonym for vaporware. I want more of that.

Like other innovative tech companies in the West, Google has been an effective producer of vaporware. The funny thing is that some of its vaporware are starting to mature only now into projects that could one day become viable businesses in their own right. One example is Verily, parent company Alphabet Inc’s research organization devoted to the study of life sciences, which hopes to one day unlock the secrets of immortality.

Vaporware is turning to reality in AI

The vaporware in the field of AI leaves us breathless more and more, and it’s the field where I hope to see more vaporware developing. But we also need to see more ideas beyond AI.

And guess what? Every great idea starts as a concept.

From the anticipated driverless cars from Tesla to AlphaGo (the narrow AI computer program developed by Alphabet’s Google DeepMind in London which became the first computer Go program to beat a human professional without handicaps on a full-sized 19×19 boar), we’re collectively stunned by how quickly ideas that were once relegated to the realms of science fiction have found their way into our day-to-day reality.

For tech entrepreneurs, it’s inspiring stuff—the very thing that our tech-filled dreams are made of. It’s the idea of bringing to life the next vaporware project that inspires us to push harder toward our goals. Ergo, vaporware is vitally important to innovation. I’d love to see more startups publicly spouting their lofty ideas, like Faraday Future, blind to those who say it can’t be done or it’s just a “concept” with no substance.

And guess what? Every great idea starts as a concept.

Replicating the Musk-effect in other fields

It’s important to look up to the people who are doing it right.