How an ex-OpenAI lead views the shift from software to robots

This article summarizes an episode of Lanny’s Podcast’s video series featuring Caitlin Kalinowski, former head of robotics at OpenAI.

Caitlin Kalinowski, former head of robotics at OpenAI/ Photo credit: Caitlin Kalinowski

Caitlin Kalinowski, former head of robotics and consumer hardware at OpenAI, believes the era of keyboard-based AI is reaching its limit. As software saturates, she argues the tech industry must pivot to the physical world.

However, this transition shatters traditional software business models, forcing companies to grapple with perfect manufacturing yields, raw material shortages, and public safety.

This leap into hardware transforms corporate strategy into a matter of national security. Kalinowski warns that because consumer electronics and military weapons rely on the exact same global supply chains, the US remains vulnerable.

Software progress slows down as companies focus on physical objects

As AI labs build better models, generating text matters less than manipulating real objects. To win the next era, companies must build physical sensors, run factories, and deploy actual robots in the real world.

“What you can do behind a keyboard with AI is going to saturate,” Kalinowski argues. “The next frontier is the physical world: robotics, manufacturing, and industrialization.”

VR paved the way for robot spatial awareness
“VR helped us understand how to orient things in space and connect a simulated world to the real world,” she notes. “We figured out SLAM (simultaneous localization and mapping), depth sensors, and how humans perceive visual data. Now robotics is using all of it.”

She explains that this tracking is universal. The exact same technology used to drive a robot via a VR headset serves as the foundation for autonomous vehicles, drones, and manufacturing.

Smart glasses face problems with factory production and social acceptance

Moving from digital code to physical wearables introduces immediate friction:

• Controlling the devices in public is difficult. Users need ways to click and type quietly while moving.
• Covering a user’s face ruins normal human conversation, which makes people refuse to buy the product.

“The Orion smart glasses are a bit ahead of their time because they’re using waveguides and microLEDs that are not quite ready for mass production,” Kalinowski explains. “The yields just aren’t there. The cost is still high.”

She adds that VR faced the same social barrier; once a device covers your face, mainstream adoption becomes an uphill battle.

Building robots reveals weak spots in global part networks

While consumer hardware faces social barriers, building industrial robots exposes fragile global supply chains. Scaling production is the primary hurdle here. Even with a reliable design, companies immediately hit supply bottlenecks because every single component must be sourced, making domestic assembly a significant challenge.

High computer memory prices prove companies need their own factories

Putting robots near people requires strict safety rules

Bad management ruins products when AI meets the military