5 strong predictions about India’s tech future. Will they hold up?

The panelists (l-r): Kirti Punia of Yourstory, Vikram Gupta of IvyCap Ventures, Rajat Tandon of NASSCOM, and Vikram Upadhyaya of GHV Accelerator, with moderator Takeshi Ebihara of Rebright Partners.

India is the world’s hottest market right now – that’s the thesis defended by three Indian investors and a representative from a major Indian media company. They were on stage today at the Asia Leaders Summit.

In his opening remarks, moderator Takeshi Ebihara of Rebright Partners busted out some facts to back it up:

India’s economy now is exactly the same size as China’s 10 years ago and follows a similar growth curve. India’s economy will likely surpass Japan’s in several years. While India is still growing, China is slowing down. 33.2 percent of foreign founders in Silicon Valley are Indian, way more than from other countries. 30 percent of Asian unicorns are Indian.

Ebihara’s own VC firm has made a number of investments in India, including news curation site [Inshorts](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.nis.app&hl=en t) and data intelligence startup Tookitaki. It launched a US$20 million India-specific fund in April.

The four panelists were Vikram Gupta of IvyCap Ventures, Rajat Tandon of NASSCOM, Vikram Upadhyaya of GHV Accelerator, and Kirti Punia, VP of marketing of Indian tech media company Yourstory.

Ebihara led them through a series of questions which they had to answer with yes or no. This resulted in a number of strong and very specific predictions about the future of the Indian market. The question is, will they hold?

1. Will India see a further rise in venture capital investments this year?

India had an exceptional year in terms of startup investments in 2015. At Tech in Asia we recorded an overall US$7.9 billion in startup investments in India last year. This sum will be surpassed in 2016, the panelists predict – defying the overall economic cooldown expected in 2016.

See: 2015 in review: India’s funding pattern in 5 graphs and what you can learn from it

2. Will we see Indian tech companies IPO on the US markets in the next 3 years?

A handful already have, so it’s no surprise the panel again answered with a loud “yes.” They pointed in particular to India’s strength in enterprise IT. Some examples of Indian tech companies with NASDAQ listings are travel ecommerce site MakeMyTrip, Infosys, and Mindtree.

3. Will we see an exit above US$1 billion within two years?

Three out of four panelists said yes. They pointed out that last year’s largest deal was worth US$400 million, when Snapdeal acquired Freecharge. Even larger M&As were entirely possible this year, they said.

4. Will India surpass China in 30 years in terms of total valuation of IPO and pre-IPO companies?

The panelists had a hard time focusing the crystal ball that deep into the future, but speculated it’s possible because India is already the second largest English-speaking country in the world, with a fast-growing population. That’s a key advantage it has over China. Then again, “in 30 years, this question may be irrelevant,” they quipped.

5. Will Uber beat Ola in terms of market share this year?

This answer came as a surprise, but most of the panelists placed their bet on Uber. The US competitor is catching up fast with local Ola, though the latter is still said to be in pole positon for now. In an earlier panel, VCs with a focus on Southeast Asia had been much more confident that local competitor Grab will eventually claim victory over Uber.

See: India’s taxi war: Uber vs Ola (INFOGRAPHIC) 

This story is part of Tech in Asia’s coverage of the Asia Leaders Summit. It’s a yearly conference organized by Masahiko Honma of  Incubate Fund, bringing together Asia’s tech community.