Where is Bitcoin headed in the Philippines? Here are some predictions for 2015

Let’s admit it: part of the fun in following the Bitcoin world is not really knowing where it will go. A cryptocurrency has never reached the scale that Bitcoin appears to be getting now, so we have no benchmark with which to predict its progress. This idea holds especially true for how Bitcoin will affect developing countries like the Philippines, where it has been hailed as a solution for expensive remittance fees – but, on the other hand, some dismiss it as a technology too complex for the masses.

In other words, Bitcoin is a bit of a wildcard. Like any wildcard, it’s an amusing intellectual exercise to guess what will eventually become of it. With this in mind, Tech in Asia spoke with Philippine Bitcoin entrepreneurs, imploring them to make bold predictions about where the currency will be exactly a year from now in 2015.

Here are their predictions – provocative, unfiltered, and insightful.

How big will the Bitcoin community be in the Philippines?

Ron Hose, founder and CEO of Coins.ph: By 2015, the Philippines will be widely recognised as one of the leading markets for Bitcoin worldwide, and as a template for how digital currency can be used to drive financial inclusion, lifting people who are currently excluded from using traditional banking. In the Philippines, Bitcoin solves a real problem for customers.

John Bailon, co-founder and CTO of Satoshi Citadel Industries or SCI: Hard to answer without actual numbers to back up, but in 2015, I see the Bitcoin community reaching out to the 10 million overseas Filipinos who only have the Philippines in their hearts, working away from their loved ones.

JR Contreras of mBTC.ph: SMS is still the most affordable and reliable mobile service around the world. This also has big implication in adaptation of Bitcoin in [rural] provinces.

Miguel Cuneta, co-founder of SCI: I believe the Bitcoin community will have grown exponentially by this time in 2015. The world will be looking at the Philippines as an example of how Bitcoin can be useful and effective in helping an emerging market participate in a global economy, allowing people who had no access to financial services and the global ecommerce economy to be able to tap into it and use it freely.

Will it still be composed of early adopters or will a larger base of Filipinos be using it?

Hose: The industry is still driven by early adopters, and it will continue to be that way until products evolve. Let’s be honest: Bitcoin is still very difficult and intimidating to most people. We’re working hard to make our products easier to use and as that happens, we’ll start seeing a broader base of customers use Bitcoin, maybe in the second part of 2015.

Cuneta: Everyone in the Bitcoin community will still be considered an early adopter by 2015. Any technology in its sixth year of development is usually still in the early stages. As a comparison, the internet in 1995 had only 30 million to 40 million users, compared to two billion today. But with the rapid growth of internet use and the explosive growth of smartphone ownership in the Philippines today, you can expect that Bitcoin adoption will also increase quickly alongside it.

Luis Buenaventura, head of product as SCI: If we’re doing our job right, the local Bitcoin community will have grown at least 10 times by 2015. If we are truly enabling people to access “better money,” then there will be no stopping the exponential growth as more and more regular folks become aware of how it can help them transact more affordably and more securely. At that point it will be a race to keep up with the needs of a much larger and much more demanding market, but that is the proverbial good problem to have.

Contreras: Groups deprived of having access to electronic commerce will be the one going onto the Bitcoin bandwagon. The barrier to entry into electronic commerce and online payment is still quite steep with traditional merchant-bank approach. With the easy setup and usage of Bitcoin, people who are shying away from regular ecommerce will be the ones to use this.