What Manus’ deal and Hong Kong’s AI IPOs tell us about 2026

Manus didn’t sell because it was weak. It sold because staying independent was getting harder.

In this episode of 60/40, we unpack why Manus chose to sell now, despite strong revenue momentum, and what the deal reveals about the real bottlenecks in AI: distribution, trust, data access, and geopolitics.

We also break down the back-to-back IPOs of Chinese AI companies MiniMax and Zhipu in Hong Kong. We discuss why they’re listing earlier and at higher revenue multiples, as well as what these IPOs tell us about how global investors are pricing “sovereign AI” in 2026.

If you want to understand where AI fundamentals are pointing next, this one’s worth your time: Spotify | YouTube | Apple Podcasts. 

Timestamps

00:00 – “We’re all talking about it as if it’s done, but it may not be.”

02:10 – Meta acquires Manus: deal overview

03:45 – The revenue math: Is a 16× multiple crazy?

06:00 – Why Manus sold now (and not later)

22:10 – Are AI startups selling too early? (Manus vs. Groq)

32:30 – Zhipu and MiniMax IPOs: What just happened in Hong Kong?

39:00 – Sovereign AI and why revenue multiples look “wrong”

42:00 – Why global investors want China AI exposure

47:30 – China vs. Hong Kong vs. India IPO pipelines