10 predictions for Southeast Asian tech in 2019

We looked back at the 10 predictions we made for 2018 and found that six hit the bull’s eye, three missed the mark, and one remains unclear.

What does 2019 have in store for Southeast Asia?

1. Go-Jek’s traction outside Indonesia will be slow

Since Grab’s acquisition of Uber’s Southeast Asia operations, consumers have been eager to search for more options in the largely monopolized ride-hailing sector.

This is changing. With the pressure to continuously grow, Indonesia’s Go-Jek began expanding into other markets in May 2018. They’ve launched in Vietnam, Singapore, and Thailand, with operations in the Philippines, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Cambodia set for 2019.

However, expanding into new markets won’t be easy. We believe that Go-Jek will take it slow (think marathon versus a 100-meter dash). Here are the challenges they may face:

A well-funded incumbent

Grab has been operating in eight markets in Southeast Asia for a long time, and they have enough green ammunition. Will Grab and Go-Jek then start a fierce price war like in the Uber era? Can Go-Jek catch up?

If Go-Jek learned anything from Uber’s (or even Meituan’s) experience in China, they would be wary of the fact that it is pretty hard to catch up with a rich incumbent through burning money.

Distinct differences between Southeast Asia markets

Each market is unique, and with Indonesia strong in Go-Jek’s DNA, adapting to other markets won’t be easy.

Grab grew almost organically across all markets before it became big. Go-Jek, on the other hand, is trying to give their local management greater autonomy.

Moreover, Grab offers the same app across all its markets, while Go-Jek believes in heavily localizing their products. This is an interesting strategy, but whether it can perform well under various shareholder interests and competitive pressures remains to be seen.

Product-market fit

2. Payments will remain fragmented

3. Ecommerce giants like Tokopedia will move offline more aggressively for growth

4. More money will go into revamping the region’s logistics network

5. Chinese cross-border ecommerce competition will intensify

6. It will be survival of the fittest, not the fastest, in fintech

7. Singapore will find a better niche as many AI and robo-advisory startups fail

8. Nobody will talk about series B crunch anymore

9. Financial advisory for VC investments as an industry will gain traction

10. E-scooters will fail to take off in the region