- Insights This article was written by a TIA community member. Insights pieces undergo the same rigorous editorial process that newsroom-produced articles have.
Ben Wee · · 5 min readWeb3 firm takes bets on predictions – degen play or crystal ball?
Who could have predicted a sitting US president would drop out of his reelection campaign just 107 days before election day?
It took a disastrous debate performance for American political pundits to call on Joe Biden to drop out of the race this summer. But Polymarket had the chances at 22.5% since September 2023.
Image credit: Timmy Loen
The crypto-based prediction market is perhaps the biggest rising star of Web3 in 2024. In May, it raised US$45 million in its series B funding round led by Founders Fund, Peter Thiel’s venture capital firm.
See also: Cake Group slashes more jobs despite end of founders’ feud
Established in 2020, Polymarket set new monthly trading volume highs in both June and July as bettors have been drawn in by its markets surrounding the US election.
The combination of something akin to gambling and a crypto company may immediately raise eyebrows and make it tempting to write off Polymarket as another sketchy degen play. But Polymarket actually has a chance to revolutionize how we predict future events, if it can overcome a few challenges.
How it works
Polymarket is one of the most used blockchain-enabled platforms today. It’s also making headlines as it approaches about US$1 billion in bets for the winner of the 2024 US presidential election.
The firm offers decentralized prediction markets on the Polygon blockchain, using smart contracts to enable users to place bets on the outcome of real-world events using the cryptocurrency USDC.
These events span topics like politics, sports, and economics, with markets including:
- Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?
- When will the US Federal Reserve start cutting interest rates?
- Who will be the Super Bowl Champion in 2025?
To date, Polymarket has clocked in more than 500,000 unique users and about US$1.7 billion in lifetime betting volumes. It has also drawn strong interest from institutional investors, raising more than US$70 million across two institutional funding rounds. Apart from Founders Fund, other notable investors in Polymarket include Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of blockchain firm Ethereum.
Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin / Photo credit: TechCrunch
Beyond gambling
Stay ahead in Asia’s tech landscape
This is premium content. Subscribe to read the full story.
Some could see Polymarket as sketchy, but could the crypto platform revolutionize how we predict the future?
We know this is not ideal. ⌛ Sign up in 20 seconds. Cancel anytime.
Our subscriber community includes professionals from these companies:
Stay updated on the go with our mobile app.
Get latest insights with smoother, more personalized experience through TIA mobile app.
