Will Grab drive a profit in 2025?

No comparison is perfect but when it comes to the ride-hailing sector, there is an obvious yardstick most companies can be measured against: Uber.

The 14-year-old American firm is synonymous with the industry and recently recorded its first operating profit after racking up more than US$30 billion in losses. While that is a hefty chunk of change to lose, getting into the black was a milestone moment for the sector as a whole.

It also offered hope to Southeast Asian ride-hailing giant Grab that it too could soon turn a profit.

While the two companies have different business models, there are some comparable metrics that indicate when Grab might follow in Uber’s tracks.

As the chart shows, Uber’s adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of gross bookings is one such example. The firm achieved adjusted EBITDA breakeven in the third quarter of 2021 – it became profitable seven quarters later, when the figure stood at 2.7%.

Meanwhile, Grab’s adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2023 was -1.3% of gross merchandise value. It expects to reach adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q4 this year.

However, Grab has been growing this figure at a faster rate than Uber did. At its current pace, the Southeast Asian firm may take fewer than seven quarters to achieve the same 2.7% milestone.

Following this (admittedly simplistic) scenario, Grab would then turn a profit by Q3 2025 – or sooner. The company may finally be getting out of second gear.

Want to read more details about the path to profit Uber offers Grab? Read the full story here.