US tariffs on Chinese goods are likely to remain at 30% through late 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 analysts and investors conducted this week.

These high tariffs, imposed during Donald Trump’s presidency, are projected to reduce Chinese exports to the US.

The survey results suggest that trade negotiations between the two countries may lead to only limited agreements in the near term.

Kelly Chen, an economist at DNB Bank, said that there is insufficient time for substantial changes to the US-China trade dynamic before the 2026 US mid-term elections. This could serve as a deadline for a deal.

If a final trade agreement is reached, the tariffs could drop to 20%, based on the survey’s median estimate.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ US tariff rates reach historic extremes not seen since pre-WWII era

The current 30% US tariff rate on Chinese goods represents a dramatic shift back to restriction-era trade policies not seen in nearly a century.

Even with the recent reduction from 145% to 30%, today’s average effective tariff rate of 17.8% is the highest since 1934, according to Yale Budget Lab analysis 1.

This parallels the historical restriction period (1861-1933) when tariffs served primarily as protection for domestic industries rather than revenue generation, with rates fluctuating around 50% 2.

Despite temporary reductions, these tariff levels remain dramatically higher than the sub-3% rates that characterized most of the post-WWII era when the US led global trade liberalization through GATT and the WTO 2.

2️⃣ Tariffs create disproportionate economic pain across sectors and households

The economic impact of the US-China trade war extends far beyond government revenue, creating uneven consequences across the American economy.

Current tariffs are projected to increase consumer prices by 1.7% overall, costing the average American household US$2,800 annually, according to Yale Budget Lab data 1.

The burden falls most heavily on specific sectors, with price increases of 15% for shoes and 14% for apparel – essential goods that represent a larger portion of spending for lower-income families 1.