US crypto market rules could be delayed until 2029

A US bill to set rules for cryptocurrency markets may not pass until 2027, with regulations possibly taking effect in 2029, according to TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group.

TD Cowen said ongoing political disagreements in Congress, especially over conflict-of-interest provisions targeting senior officials like President Trump, could delay progress.

Democrats are expected to push for rules that would bar senior officials and their families from owning or running cryptocurrency businesses, a move unlikely to gain Trump’s support unless delayed for several years.

The House approved its version of the bill last year, but momentum has slowed in the Senate, where securing at least seven Democratic votes is required to overcome a filibuster.

Analysts say Democrats may prefer to wait until after the 2026 midterms, potentially allowing Democratic regulators to oversee final rulemaking if a Democrat wins the White House.

Policy experts estimate a 50%–60% chance of the bill becoming law in 2026.

🔗 Source: The Block

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Implications, context, and why it matters.

FIT21 (Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act) split seeks clarity while raising enforcement questions

House-passed FIT21 splits oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for securities-like tokens and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for commodities-like tokens, which could reshape how crypto assets (digital assets) get classified and policed in the US.
Key mechanics would come later through SEC and CFTC rulemakings after enactment. That includes how tokens shift between categories, what rules hit crypto exchanges (trading platforms), and how custody (how customer assets are held) must work. This makes the TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group (a policy research unit of the investment bank TD Cowen) 2027–2029 timeline feel less decisive for day-to-day operations.
Until those rules land, crypto exchanges, token issuers, and custodians cannot tell whether the delay brings later clarity or extends a phase dominated by federal enforcement and state-level regimes.

State crypto licensing opens near-term business for compliance providers

With federal rules possibly delayed until 2029, crypto and fintech firms must navigate a patchwork of state regimes, including New York’s BitLicense and California’s Digital Financial Assets Law starting in 2025 1 2.
Fragmentation drives demand for regulatory technology (regtech) platforms, multi-state licensing services, and compliance advisory firms that help businesses run across states without waiting for federal clarity.
Software vendors building compliance infrastructure, plus investors backing regtech for crypto, could use a multi-year window through 2029 where state-by-state navigation becomes a competitive necessity.

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