The US and China will hold their first formal economic discussions since the trade war escalated under President Trump, according to the US Treasury Department.

The talks are set to take place in Geneva, Switzerland, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer meeting Chinese counterparts.

Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter and other officials will also attend.

This marks the first official engagement between Washington and Beijing since January.

The discussions will focus on economic and trade matters, despite China’s public denials of ongoing talks.

🔗 Source: Axios

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ U.S.-China economic tensions follow a 240-year pattern of complex trade relations

The current trade standoff is part of a centuries-long economic relationship that has alternated between cooperation and conflict.

The first official U.S. trade with China began in 1784 with the voyage of the “Empress of China,” which established profitable commerce but also revealed fundamental tensions in how each nation approached trade 1.

Much like today’s concerns over trade imbalances, historical U.S.-China relations saw recurring disputes over market access, with the 1844 Treaty of Wangxia establishing “most-favored-nation status” after years of trade restrictions 2.

This pattern of engagement followed by economic confrontation has repeated throughout history—from the 19th century Opium Wars to the 21st century tariff battles—showing how deeply entrenched these structural tensions are.

The 34% tariffs from the Trump administration and China’s identical retaliatory measures mirror the tit-for-tat approach that has characterized dispute periods in this relationship for generations.

2️⃣ Current tariffs projected to cause significant global economic damage

The scale of potential economic harm from the current trade war exceeds previous disputes, with Goldman Sachs downgrading China’s GDP growth forecasts to 4% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 specifically due to sustained high tariff rates 3.

Broader economic modeling suggests a universal 10% tariff combined with 110% tariffs on China could reduce global GDP by a full percentage point, affecting economies worldwide, not just the direct participants 4.