Uber faces analyst scrutiny over Waymo, Tesla AV threat

Uber Technologies Inc. faces increased attention from analysts due to potential risks from autonomous vehicle (AV) competition, particularly from Waymo and Tesla, according to Bloomberg sources.

Wall Street analysts note that while Uber’s core ride-hailing business remains strong, the rise of AV fleets could impact its market share and valuation over time.

Uber’s stock has declined about 22% since October, including a recent 3.6% drop.

Analysts estimate around 40% of Uber’s mobility bookings could be exposed to AV-related risks, which may affect future cash flows.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Uber relies on partners for robotaxis

Analysts worry that autonomous vehicle (AV) fleets from Waymo and Tesla could cut into Uber’s market share and valuation over time, yet that view can miss Uber’s shift after it ended its in-house robotaxi program in 2020 1.
Uber now brings outside AV fleets onto its ride-hailing app, aiming to act as the distribution layer for autonomous rides.
In Austin and Atlanta, riders can already request a Waymo robotaxi through the Uber app 1.
Uber is also planning broader rollout work with NVIDIA (a leading maker of AI chips and software platforms). NVIDIA says the partnership could help Uber scale to 100,000 autonomous vehicles over time starting in 2027. Uber also plans with Lucid (an electric vehicle maker) and Nuro (a self-driving technology company) for “20,000 or more” robotaxis, with a platform debut slated for late 2026 2.

The robotaxi race depends on the network

Robotaxis shift the fight from ride-hailing share toward control of the platform that connects riders with vehicles.
Uber is building one network for human drivers plus autonomous vehicles, with the bet that the customer relationship matters more than the vehicle tech 2.
The approach could open a new revenue stream, though investors keep watching whether AV partners improve unit economics or squeeze margins as competition rises 3.
Many platforms facing disruption follow a similar path by becoming the aggregator for new tech instead of trying to build it in-house.