TSMC shares hit record high in early trading

TSMC shares reached a record NT$1,650 (US$52.61) in early trading on January 5, up NT$65 (US$2.07) from the previous session.

The gain pushed the chipmaker’s market capitalization to NT$42.8 trillion (US$1.36 trillion).

TSMC’s American depositary receipts closed at a record US$319.61 on January 2, rising 5.2%.

The company’s market value increased to US$1.7 trillion, overtaking Meta and Broadcom to become the world’s sixth most valuable firm by market capitalization, according to CompaniesMarketCap.

Investors are anticipating TSMC’s next investor conference, scheduled for January 15.

🔗 Source: Focus Taiwan

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

TSMC Q4 will test the AI chip rally

Shares have run on AI hopes, with the January 15 call and a 2025 capital expenditure (capex) plan guided at $40–42 billion set to test the trend 1.
CoWoS that links processors with memory for speed remains the bottleneck, and the CoWoS-L variant serves very large AI accelerator packages. TSMC targets 120,000–130,000 wafers per month by end-2026 from 75,000–80,000, while NVIDIA’s 2026 need could top CoWoS-L supply by about 20% 1 2.
Revenue growth near the mid-30% range backs earlier AI estimates 1, though margins face pressure from the 2-nanometer (N2) ramp and higher electricity costs that could cool profit outlooks plus valuations 3.

Suppliers could gain if packaging spend rises

A higher 2025–2026 capex guide on January 15 would lift orders for advanced packaging gear including lithography, inspection tools and substrates. Goldman Sachs pegs capex at $50 billion by 2027, which extends the equipment cycle 3.
OSAT (outsourced semiconductor assembly and test) firms such as Advanced Semiconductor Engineering could benefit from CoWoS constraints. ASE’s CoWoS output could reach 20,000–25,000 wafers per month by year-end 2025, more than triple today, as TSMC outsources simpler redistribution layer (RDL) products to ease bottlenecks 2.
Substrate makers stand to gain as CoWoS-L growth tracks rising AI package complexity. With over 85% of TSMC’s CoWoS capacity already committed to large customers 4, suppliers covering the remaining 15% plus new builds could secure higher prices on multi-year deals.