In the first 100 days of his second term, President Donald Trump has intensified Washington’s confrontation with Beijing.

He has pushed a staunchly protectionist trade agenda that has resulted in a de facto trade embargo between the world’s two largest economies.

The US raised tariffs on most Chinese goods to 145%, with some reaching 245%, while China retaliated with 125% tariffs, export controls on critical minerals, and restrictions on Hollywood film imports.

This continues the trade war Trump began in 2018, now with efforts to close loopholes used by Chinese exporters.

Trump’s strategy aims to reduce the US$918.4 billion trade deficit and create US jobs. However, experts warn the strategy could push China closer to ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, undermining its effectiveness.

🔗 Source: Al Jazeera

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ US tariff rates have reached century-high levels, echoing historical protectionism

The current 145% tariffs on Chinese goods represent the highest US tariff levels in over a century, with the average effective US tariff rate rising to 22.5%, levels not seen since 19091.

This marks a dramatic reversal from decades of trade liberalization that followed World War II, when the US championed global free trade through institutions like GATT and the WTO.

The historical parallel is notable: the last time America imposed such high tariffs was during the Smoot-Hawley era, which economists widely blame for deepening the Great Depression by triggering retaliatory measures from trading partners2.

Data shows these tariffs create significant consumer costs. The Yale Budget Lab estimates an average household loss of $3,800 due to price increases, with lower-income households bearing a disproportionate burden1.

Economic projections indicate the tariffs will reduce US GDP growth by 0.8-0.9 percentage points, highlighting the substantial economic tradeoffs of protectionist policies1.

2️⃣ Trade tensions reflect bipartisan shift in US-China policy, not just Trump’s approach

The current trade conflict represents a fundamental bipartisan shift in US trade philosophy rather than merely Trump’s personal stance on China.

While Trump initiated unilateral tariffs during his first term, the Biden administration maintained most of these trade barriers and implemented additional measures against China, demonstrating remarkable policy continuity despite rhetorical differences3.