The ongoing trade conflict between the US and China is disrupting supply chains, with experts warning of potential economic impacts.

After the US raised tariffs to 145% in April 2025, cargo shipments from China fell by around 40%, prompting warnings from major retailers about potential price hikes and shortages.

Manufacturers and suppliers, especially ahead of peak shopping seasons, are seeing inventory delays and cancellations.

The freight industry has responded by reducing capacity to align with decreased demand, creating additional challenges.

Experts warn that a resolution to the trade dispute could cause a sudden surge in shipping demand.

This surge may overwhelm ports and logistics networks.

While some US importers are turning to Southeast Asia for alternatives, economists fear the trade war could fuel inflation, cause job cuts, and further damage consumer sentiment.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ America’s 240-year trade relationship with China has weathered multiple disruptions

Today’s trade tensions represent just one chapter in a centuries-long economic relationship that began with the sailing ship “Empress of China” in 1784, carrying 30 tons of ginseng and silver coins to Canton 1.

This first trading voyage yielded a 25% profit and established a pattern of economic interdependence that has persisted despite numerous historical disruptions 1.

The relationship has evolved through multiple cycles of engagement and conflict, including the Opium Wars of the 1800s, post-1949 diplomatic freeze after the communist revolution, and the Nixon-era reopening in the 1970s 2.

Previous trade disruptions show how resilient these commercial ties have been. After diplomatic relations were restored in 1979, trade expanded dramatically, growing from minimal exchange to reaching $582.4 billion by 2024 3.

The current tariff situation mirrors historical patterns where political tensions temporarily disrupt commerce but rarely sever it permanently, suggesting eventual stabilization despite short-term pain.

2️⃣ Tariffs create regressive economic impacts that disproportionately affect everyday consumers