The recent US exemptions on tariffs for smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors may be temporary.

President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that “nobody is getting off the hook” and emphasized the US will not be “held hostage” by countries like China.

He clarified on April 13, that there was “no tariff ‘exception’” on those products, noting they are still subject to a 20% rate under a “different tariff ‘bucket’”

US tariffs on Chinese imports have reached 145%, while China has imposed a 125% retaliatory rate on US goods.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled that new tariffs on semiconductors and other critical items could be announced within two months.

🔗 Source: Agence France-Presse

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ U.S. tariff rates have reached historic highs not seen in over a century

The current trade tensions have pushed U.S. tariff rates to extraordinary levels by historical standards.

The average effective U.S. tariff rate is now at its highest since 1909, following the recent tariff announcements targeting multiple countries but especially China 1.

This represents a dramatic shift from decades of declining tariff rates that followed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which is widely considered to have deepened the Great Depression by stifling international trade 2.

Economic analyses from multiple institutions project these high tariffs will reduce GDP growth, decrease wages, and raise consumer prices, with the average household facing potential losses of approximately $3,800 due to increased costs 1.

The current approach mirrors historical protectionist policies that have consistently shown negative economic consequences, with Yale Budget Lab forecasting significant reductions in real GDP growth in both short and long-term projections 1.

2️⃣ Trade diversion creates unexpected winners in tariff conflicts

While the U.S.-China trade conflict dominates headlines, it has created significant economic opportunities for uninvolved countries through trade diversion.

When tariffs interrupted established supply chains between the U.S. and China, approximately $21 billion in trade was diverted to third countries not directly involved in the dispute 3.