Tinder's parent firm predicts weak Q4 revenue as user growth slows

Match Group forecast Q4 revenue below analyst expectations, highlighting ongoing difficulties in its efforts to boost growth.

The US-based company, which owns Tinder, OkCupid, and Plenty of Fish, expects Q4 revenue between US$865 million and US$875 million, missing the US$882.8 million consensus from LSEG data.

Shares dropped 3% in after-hours trading.

Match reported a 5% drop in paying users to 14.5 million for Q3.

Q3 revenue was US$914 million, slightly below the US$915 million estimate.

Despite investing in new features and AI-driven security tools, Match has yet to see significant gains in user engagement.

The online dating sector faces “swiping fatigue,” as younger users look for more interactive ways to connect, intensifying competition across the industry.

Hinge, another Match platform, is growing but remains too small to offset Tinder’s challenges.

🔗 Source: Reuters

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Bumble and Match slip as dating growth cools

Bumble posted Q3 2024 revenue of $274 million, down 1% year over year, with total paying users up 11% to 4.3 million and average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) down 10% to $21.17 1.
Within Bumble App, paying users rose 10% to 2.9 million, yet revenue slipped 1% to $220 million, and ARPPU fell from $28.38 to $25.58 2. The gap suggests pricing pressure.
Guidance aligns across both firms. Bumble guides Q4 2024 revenue to $256 to $262 million, a 5% drop at the midpoint 1. Match guides Q4 to $865 to $875 million, below the $882.8 million consensus, and reports a 5% fall in Q3 paying users to 14.5 million.

Gen Z shifts to video, opening doors for social discovery and tech vendors

In the U.S., Gen Z use is 65% for Instagram, 63% for YouTube, and 58% for TikTok 3. Instagram Reels engagement is up 25% since Q4 2021 3, and nearly 2 in 5 U.S. TikTok users watch livestreams each month 4.
Influencer posts sway Gen Z shopping, with nearly 40% placing more trust in influencers than a year ago 5. Startups may weave influencer-style authenticity into social discovery mechanics (apps that help people meet new people, including for dating or friendship) to attract users who want more interactive connections.
Cloud infrastructure and video streaming vendors gain as video becomes the norm. Platforms for Gen Z need longer videos, livestreaming, and AI-powered moderation.