🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

School safety technology market thrives despite limited effectiveness evidence

• Raptor’s $2 billion valuation reflects strong market demand that persists even as research questions the effectiveness of many school safety technologies.
• Over 95% of American K-12 schools now conduct active shooter drills, yet studies show these can increase student anxiety by 42% and depression by 39% without clear safety benefits2.
• RAND research found that while experts consider video surveillance appropriate for severe violence, rigorous research on school safety technology effectiveness remains limited3.
• This creates a market dynamic where schools continue investing in safety solutions, enabling companies like Raptor to serve 60,000 schools globally, despite experts arguing that “school hardening” measures don’t effectively prevent violence4.

Private equity capitalizes on sustained school safety concerns

• The timing of Thoma Bravo’s sale aligns with persistently high school incident rates, with 336 incidents recorded in K-12 schools in 2024, just 15 fewer than the 2023 all-time high of 3511.
• This sustained threat level has fundamentally shifted school safety perceptions since the Columbine shooting in 1999, creating a durable market for safety technologies5.
• Raptor’s strong financial performance, generating over $80 million in EBITDA, demonstrates how safety concerns translate into consistent revenue streams that attract private equity interest1.
• The company’s international expansion to 55 countries suggests the school safety technology market extends well beyond the U.S., providing additional growth opportunities for acquirers willing to pay premium valuations1.