Tesla shares set for first record high in a year

Tesla shares rose as much as 4.9% on December 15, 2025 and are on track to close at a record high for the first time since December 2024.

The stock reached US$481.4 in early trading in New York, an intraday high, while its previous closing record was US$479.9, and the final closing record was not yet confirmed.

Tesla shares have more than doubled since hitting a low in April, despite concerns over the company’s valuation and the outlook for EV sales.

Analysts expect Tesla’s sales growth to slow, citing weakening fundamentals and increased regulatory scrutiny.

Tesla’s recent gains follow a period of volatility linked to expired EV tax credits, CEO Elon Musk’s public statements, and market shifts favoring AI and robotics.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Tesla’s 278 P/E meets slowing fundamentals

Shares trade at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) of 277.76, so investors pay $278 for each dollar of expected earnings 1.
Consensus puts EPS at $0.47 this quarter, down 35.6% year over year, with full-year at $1.64, off 32.2% 2. Revenue is set to fall 3.3% this quarter and 2.9% for the year 2.
EPS beat only once in the last four quarters, and a D on value metrics means it trades at a premium to peers 2. The valuation leans on AI and robotics hopes outside autos. Ford CEO Jim Farley warned U.S. market share for electric vehicles (EVs) could slip to 5% if policies favor gas models, which adds pressure on Tesla’s base business.

Suppliers can target Lathrop Megafactory ramp to ~40 GWh

The Lathrop Megafactory makes Megapack utility-scale battery systems and was expected to reach 40 gigawatt-hours (GWh) a year by end of 2024, about 10,000 units 3 4. It has produced its 15,000th Megapack, and deployments hit 9.4 GWh in Q2 2024, up 158% year over year 3 4.
Suppliers of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells and power electronics can chase new orders, as can makers of thermal management systems and grid integration software 5. Tesla is investing over $1 billion in a Texas lithium refinery to ease near-term bottlenecks 6.
Grid software vendors and energy system integrators can track a growing backlog as 2025 production slots fill 6. The company targets 100 GWh in yearly stationary storage shipments 6.