Tesla expected to deliver about 440,900 vehicles in Q4

Tesla is projected to report Q4 deliveries of about 440,900 vehicles, an 11% drop year-on-year, according to Bloomberg data.

The EV maker, led by Elon Musk, also published its own average of analyst estimates, indicating a possible 15% drop in deliveries.

Analysts have cut forecasts for Tesla’s 2026 deliveries from over 3 million two years ago to roughly 1.8 million now.

Tesla’s vehicle sales were affected by production line retooling for the redesigned Model Y and public backlash against Musk’s political activities.

In June, Tesla launched a limited Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, with safety operators present, which drew regulatory scrutiny after initial traffic violations.

Despite near-term sales drops and regulatory investigations, investors appear focused on Tesla’s long-term prospects in AI and autonomous vehicles.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

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Model Y refresh and Q4 shortfall blur near-term outlook for output and demand

These delivery figures reflect company and analyst targets in 1 and may differ from third-party projections.

Tesla missed Q4 2024 delivery targets by 3.8%, delivering 495,570 vehicles against a 515,000 goal 1.
The refreshed Model Y made up 66% of 2024 global sales, and mixed early reviews cast doubt on the demand rebound needed to meet revised 2026 goals 1.
Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits is projected to drop from 17.1% in Q3 2024 to 14.2% in Q4 2024, so pricing pressure is squeezing profits as production scales 1.
No timeline for output of the refreshed Model Y at plants leaves investors unsure if the miss stems from factory limits or softer demand.

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Vendors and fleet operators need real-time tools that track permits and report incidents to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) within required timelines 2 3.
Waymo trained over 20,000 first responders nationwide, but companies limit data sharing and require legal requests for video, creating demand for third-party incident platforms 3.