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Taiwan chip dominance raises global supply chain risks
Taiwan’s concentration of advanced chipmaking is raising global supply‑chain risk as TSMC held 70.4% of the foundry market in Q4 2025 while Samsung held 7.2%, a gap of 63.2 percentage points, TrendForce said.
Industry estimates say over 90% of 5nm and smaller advanced logic semiconductor production occurs in Taiwan and supplies cores for AI server GPUs, smartphone APs, and military systems.
TSMC recorded a 62.3% gross profit margin in Q4 2025 and is reportedly planning to increase its capital expenditure to up to US$55.0 billion by 2026 to expand advanced process and CoWoS packaging capacity.
Analysts warned that dependence on Taiwan raised risks from natural disasters, power outages, water shortages, and a shortage of skilled workers that could disrupt global IT supply chains.
TSMC already consumes a large share of Taiwan’s electricity.
Experts say Taiwan’s chip ecosystem remains difficult to replicate in the short term
🔗 Source: Chosun Daily
🧠 Food for thought
Implications, context, and why it matters.
Global governments are spending hundreds of billions to reduce reliance on Taiwan-centric advanced chipmaking
- Countries are pouring money into chip supply chains to reduce dependence on Taiwan.
- The U.S. CHIPS and Science Act sets aside about $280 billion through subsidies plus tax incentives for the tech sector 1.
- Over $70 billion targets the chips industry, and companies have announced almost $400 billion more for chips plus other electronics since the law passed 1.
- The European Union wants to reach 20% of global semiconductor production by 2030, up from 10% today 2.
- In the U.S., Intel is a provisional recipient for grants up to $8.5 billion plus up to $11 billion in federal loans for domestic facilities 3.
TSMC’s packaging constraint is pushing interest toward Intel’s EMIB and Foveros
- Demand for AI chips has strained TSMC’s advanced Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) packaging capacity, which assembles high-performance processors 4.
- Tight supply gives rivals a chance to compete on packaging slots rather than fabrication scale 4.
- U.S. chipmakers are looking at Intel’s Embedded Multi-die Interconnect Bridge (EMIB) plus Foveros (its 3D chip-stacking and advanced packaging technology), including for chips made at TSMC’s Arizona facility 4.
- This could create split supply chains where chips from TSMC’s Fab 21 in Arizona go to Intel’s Rio Rancho, New Mexico, site or other U.S. packaging plants, instead of returning to Taiwan for CoWoS 4.
- The opening may narrow by 2027 if TSMC delivers its CoWoS and System on Integrated Chips (SoIC) expansion plans, as more packaging capacity comes online 4.
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