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Smart glasses market to reach $200b by 2040: HSBC
The smart glasses market could reach US$200 billion by 2040, according to a note from HSBC analysts.
The bank raised its previous estimate by a third, citing early sales momentum of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses, a collaboration between EssilorLuxottica and Meta.
HSBC expects smart glasses users to rise to 289 million by 2040, up from 15 million projected in 2025.
Ray-Ban Meta frames are reportedly seeing strong demand, with EssilorLuxottica and Meta considering doubling production capacity by the end of this year.
HSBC analysts believe more competition from firms such as Apple, Samsung, or Amazon could enter the market in 2026 or 2027.
🔗 Source: Bloomberg
🧠 Food for thought
Implications, context, and why it matters.
Shipments do not prove sticky use. Check EssilorLuxottica earnings for monthly active users (MAU) and repeat buys
- HSBC projects $200 billion by 2040, based on Ray-Ban Meta early sales turning into ongoing use 1. The bank gives no monthly active user counts or retention metrics.
- EssilorLuxottica (the eyewear company behind Ray-Ban) reports 2 million pairs sold since October 2023 2. It plans 10 million a year by end of 2026, yet no public data covers use of the camera, AI features, or Meta’s AI assistant.
- Quarterly earnings from EssilorLuxottica can surface channel inventory levels and sell-through rates (how many units retailers sell to consumers) 3. Look for comments on repeat buyers, which will signal steady demand or launch buzz that could fade.
Third-party developers can build voice and vision apps as Meta and Google open SDKs in 2025 to 2026
- Meta opened the Wearables Device Access Toolkit in public preview 4. iOS and Android apps can stream 720p video at 30 frames per second (FPS) from Ray-Ban Meta glasses over Bluetooth. That enables livestreaming, AI object recognition, and hands-free tasks.
- Google’s Android extended reality (XR) SDK Developer Preview 3 adds tools for AI glasses, starting with motion tracking and geospatial (location-based) features 5. It also brings eye tracking, depth maps, and Unity (a 3D game engine) scene meshing. Partners on the way include Samsung and Warby Parker (an eyewear retailer).
- Software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies should evaluate both platforms now 45. So should enterprise systems integrators (firms that implement and connect software across large organizations). Prioritize features like live captions, real-time translation, or field service overlays based on Bluetooth bandwidth, display application programming interfaces (APIs) where available, and app distribution policies.
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