🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

The HBM boom is creating its own memory supercycle

• DRAM and NAND shortages come from AI accelerator demand plus a planned supply shift by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
• High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) takes about three times the manufacturing capacity of standard DRAM 1.
• As production moves toward HBM, output tightens for commoditized memory chips. Prices rise across categories 2.
• Contract DRAM pricing rose about 420% in 2025. That rise lifts premiums on HBM and pushes up standard chips too 2.

China’s AI chip boom depends on foreign memory supply

• China is building an end-to-end AI ecosystem under US export restrictions. Advanced memory still comes largely from overseas suppliers.
• Government support helped grow local Nvidia challengers like MetaX and Moore Threads. Their STAR Market debuts jumped, MetaX about 700% and Moore Threads over 400% 3.
• Some leading chips lean on top-tier memory. MetaX’s C600 uses HBM3e (a leading-edge version of HBM), while sources do not confirm the HBM comes entirely from korean firms 4.
• Domestic memory work trails. CXMT is expanding HBM capacity, while analysts call HBM a bottleneck for China’s local accelerators 5.
• That gap ties AI self-sufficiency goals to a supply chain led by non-Chinese memory providers.