🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Samsung and Apple are winning a smartphone market that’s bracing for a historic crash

• Omdia reported 1% market growth in Q1, yet soaring component costs are setting up a crisis 1.
• Mobile Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM), a type of short-term memory chip, and NAND flash, a type of storage chip, jumped about 90% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 because AI server demand squeezed supply 1.
• Analysts forecast global smartphone shipments could fall 12.9% in 2026, which would be the biggest decline ever recorded 2.
• Samsung and Apple gained share as competitors struggled with the slide in market conditions 2.

The smartphone industry is splitting into two separate markets

• Higher bills are widening the gap between premium devices and budget models.
• The premium segment, priced above $800, is forecast to grow about 4% in 2026, while the sub-$100 category is forecast to drop nearly 31% year-on-year 3.
• Apple and Samsung can absorb the pressure through scale and margins. Samsung also benefits from vertical integration, meaning it makes more of its own components internally, plus in-house semiconductor capabilities 3.
• Android brands focused on budget and mid-range phones may delay memory upgrades or cut specifications, including lower base Random-Access Memory (RAM), in new models to keep costs down 4.
• Some analysts say the sub-$100 segment is becoming “permanently uneconomical,” which could reshape the market 2.