Rivian 2025 deliveries fall 18% after US EV tax credit ends

Rivian delivered 42,247 EVs in 2025, an 18% drop from the previous year and below analyst expectations of 42,500 deliveries, according to Visible Alpha data.

The US-based automaker, which sells the R1T pickup and R1S SUV, has faced weaker demand after the US EV tax credit ended in September, raising vehicle prices.

For Q4, Rivian produced 10,974 vehicles at its Illinois plant and delivered 9,745, falling short of Wall Street’s forecast of 10,050 deliveries.

The company plans to launch its cheaper R2 SUV in the first half of 2026 to broaden its customer base and compete with Tesla’s Model Y.

Rivian is also working to cut manufacturing costs and improve profitability.

Full financial results for Q4 and 2025 will be released on February 12.

🔗 Source: Reuters

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Rivian’s delivery drop and 2025 loss outlook raise funding questions ahead of R2 launch

An 18% delivery drop strains cash as the company expects an adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest/taxes/depreciation/amortization) loss of $2.0 to $2.25 billion in 2025 with capital spending of $1.8 to $1.9 billion 1.
Q3 2025 posted $24 million gross profit, a $416 million swing from Q3 2024, yet automotive still logged a $130 million gross loss 1.
R2 needs upfront buildout in Illinois with 2.3 million square feet across a body shop and an assembly line, with equipment commissioning underway 1.
A delivery miss raises dilution risk (raising capital by issuing more shares, which reduces existing shareholders’ ownership) if the company must cover losses plus R2 build through 2026. New equity may be needed before the cheaper SUV delivers sustainable cash flow.

EV financing intermediaries can capture demand by aggregating Rivian’s incentive stack

Buyers can get 0% APR (annual percentage rate) for 60 months on 2025 models, up to $6,500 lease bonuses on select R1 vehicles, and 0.99% APR on R1 Tri (tri-motor) models 2 3 4.
Fintech platforms and auto marketplaces can bundle these deals with state and utility rebates to build an incentive stack that lowers prices.
The window is now since several offers need approval by January 6, 2026 and delivery by January 31, 2026 including the $6,500 lease bonus 3 5.
This edge lasts into early 2026, before the R2 launch pulls focus to a lower priced model and the company resets promotions.