The United States has reportedly contacted China to discuss tariffs imposed during former President Donald Trump’s administration.

This information comes from Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account associated with Chinese state media.

It indicated that US officials approached China through various channels, though no official confirmation has been given.

US officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, have expressed hope for reducing trade tensions.

Hassett noted ongoing informal discussions between the two governments.

🔗 Source: Reuters

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ Trade wars follow predictable economic pain patterns that create negotiation windows

Historical data shows that trade wars typically follow a pattern where economic pain creates the conditions for renewed negotiations, as seen now with both sides.

Manufacturing activity in China has contracted to a PMI of 49.0 in April 2025, directly attributed to the impact of high U.S. tariffs, potentially threatening up to 16 million Chinese jobs if the situation continues 1.

This follows the U.S. economy shrinking by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025—the first decline in three years—with experts warning that continued tariffs could push recession probability to 90% by summer 2.

The current pattern mirrors previous trade tensions, such as the 2019 escalation when the U.S. raised tariffs from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, which also led to behind-the-scenes negotiations despite public defiance 3.

Both sides are now seeking quiet paths to de-escalation, with China creating exemptions for U.S. pharmaceuticals, microchips, and jet engines despite public rhetoric about never yielding 4.

The data suggests economic reality often forces pragmatism, with current secret outreach resembling previous patterns where trade wars end not with dramatic public concessions but through gradual, face-saving compromises.

2️⃣ Tariff wars create asymmetric economic impacts across global supply chains

The impact of the current tariff escalation isn’t uniform, creating winners and losers across global industries and accelerating supply chain restructuring.