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OpenAI targets $100b ad revenue by 2030: sources

OpenAI has told investors it expects ad revenue to reach US$2.5 billion in 2026 and US$100 billion by 2030, according to a source familiar with recent presentations.

The forecast assumes OpenAI reaches 2.75 billion weekly users by 2030 and lifts ad sales from US$11 billion in 2027 to US$53 billion in 2029.

The company said an ad pilot was already generating US$100 million in annual recurring revenue in under two months.

The move would push OpenAI deeper into a market led by Google, Meta, Amazon, and TikTok, while critics warn chatbot ads could clash with user interests.

🔗 Source: Axios

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

OpenAI aims for ad revenue while rolling out carefully

  • Annual recurring revenue of US$100 million came from a U.S.-only pilot with more than 600 advertisers. CNBC said some advertisers felt the rollout moved slowly and stayed conservative 1.
  • The test widened an industry split. Rival Anthropic, an AI startup best known for its Claude chatbot, launched an ad campaign that pitches Claude as an ad-free alternative 2.
  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman defended advertising as a way to fund free AI access for billions of people who cannot afford subscriptions 2.

Chatbot ads raise new privacy and legal concerns

  • Search engines sell keywords, conversational AI ads can sell the context of a chat. One privacy analysis said that kind of context can “reveal a life” 3.
  • In ChatGPT’s ads test, logged-in adult users in the U.S. see ads on the Free and Go tiers. Personalization stays on by default, and when memory is active, ad selection can use past chats and stored memories 3.
  • Chat logs can also become evidence. In one federal case, prosecutors tried to use a defendant’s questions to Anthropic’s Claude chatbot and the model’s replies in court 4.

Recent OpenAI developments

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