Nvidia set to report earnings despite AI bubble concerns

Nvidia is set to report earnings on November 19, with investors closely watching for signs of an AI bubble as the company’s stock and the broader market have recently declined.

Nvidia accounts for about 10% of the Nasdaq 100 ETF, so significant movement in its share price could impact the wider market.

Historically, Nvidia’s stock has moved an average of 7.9% up or down following its earnings reports, according to Bespoke Investment Group.

Analysts are focused on the demand for Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, with US$500 billion in revenue reportedly booked through 2026.

There is also attention on whether Nvidia will discuss regaining access to the China market, which is restricted by US policy.

Investors are questioning whether strong demand for Nvidia’s chips from major tech companies will continue.

Some analysts have raised concerns about sustainability within the AI sector, citing risks from companies investing in each other, and possible supply issues.

🔗 Source: Axios

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Nvidia’s $500 billion backlog looks softer

Nvidia pegs the $500 billion order book for Blackwell (its next-generation AI accelerator platform) and Rubin (its planned follow-on chip architecture) over five quarters 1. About 30% are already shipped chips, and the tally includes networking gear, so the forward backlog is nearer to $307 billion 1.
The figure is not a forecast, and it does not sort firm orders from estimates 1. Developers often file multiple grid connection requests (applications to hook new facilities to power networks) with utilities without flagging overlaps, which can inflate demand projections 2.
Microsoft’s remaining performance obligations (RPO) rose 51% to $392 billion, and Google Cloud’s backlog rose 46% to $155 billion 3. Deployment depends on fixing power constraints that strain grids 4.

Power suppliers see a rush from AI

AI data centers will need 69 gigawatts (GW) by 2028, and Nvidia pegs spend at $50–$60 billion per gigawatt 5. That opens room for firms in generation, cooling, and colocation (third-party data centers that rent space plus power) 5.
Virginia’s electricity bills rose 13% year over year 6. PJM Interconnection (PJM), the mid Atlantic grid operator, saw capacity costs jump over 500% with data centers making up 63% of the $14.7 billion bill 6.
Vendors with workload efficiency software and power management tools can target U.S. data center hubs as utilities struggle to build lines plus plants fast enough for demand 4. U.S. spare peak capacity (the grid’s reserve margin, the buffer between supply and expected peak demand) is set to drop below 15% by decade end 4.