Nvidia expected to report 68% Q4 revenue growth

Nvidia is set to release its fiscal Q4 results after the market closes on February 25, with LSEG consensus estimates expecting adjusted earnings of US$1.5 per share and revenue of US$66.2 billion, a 68% rise year-on-year.

Analysts anticipate the company will report its 11th consecutive quarter of revenue growth above 55%, driven by demand for AI hardware from major tech firms.

StreetAccount forecasts revenue from Nvidia’s data center segment to reach US$60.7 billion, up 70%, with data center hardware accounting for roughly 90% of total revenue.

Industry observers, citing Micron’s Sumit Sadana, are monitoring gross margin amid rising memory costs due to a global shortage.

On its last earnings call in November, Nvidia projected a gross margin around 75%, and Cantor analysts expect a similar or slightly higher figure, noting supply chain management is key to mitigating margin pressures.

Nvidia executives will discuss the results during an earnings call scheduled for 5 p.m. ET.

🔗 Source: CNBC

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

The numbers behind Nvidia’s ~$66 billion quarter

Analysts expect $66.2 billion in revenue. Nvidia guided to $65 billion, plus or minus 2%, on its November earnings call, so the consensus sits near the top of that range 1.
That estimate adds roughly $9 billion in a single quarter compared with the $57 billion Nvidia reported for Q3 1.
Rising memory costs could squeeze gross margin. Management said it aims to keep gross margins in the “mid-seventies” looking ahead to fiscal year 2027, while guiding Q4 gross margin to about 74.875%, plus or minus 50 basis points (a finance term meaning 0.50 percentage points) 1.

The AI boom’s hidden cost is a global memory shortage

Nvidia’s pull for High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), a fast stacked type of memory used with AI chips, is adding to a wider supply crunch that leaves less memory for other tech companies 2.
Chipmakers face a production trade-off. For every one bit of HBM they build, they give up making three bits of conventional memory used in PCs, phones, and cars 2.
Prices for other buyers have jumped and supplies have tightened. PC maker Lenovo said memory prices rose 40% to 50% in the last quarter for the company 3.