Nio forecasts delivery jump after first quarterly profit

Nio forecast Q1 2026 deliveries of 80,000–83,000 vehicles and revenue of 24.5–25.2 billion yuan (US$3.56 billion–3.6 billion).

The company said deliveries would grow 90% to 97% year-on-year after reporting its first quarterly profit since it was founded 11 years ago.

In Q4 2025 Nio reported an adjusted profit of 726.8 million yuan (US$105.6 million) and an adjusted net profit from operations of 1.3 billion yuan (US$189 million), while vehicle deliveries reached 124,807 units, up nearly 72% year-on-year.

However, the company still posted a full-year adjusted net loss of 12.0 billion yuan (US$1.7 billion), narrowing 39% year-on-year.

Q4 2025 revenue hit a record 34.7 billion yuan (US$5 billion), and full-year revenue rose to 87.5 billion yuan (US$12.7 billion) as full-year deliveries reached 326,028 units.

The company said comprehensive gross margin was 17.5% and vehicle margin 18%, both the highest since 2022, and cash reserves climbed to nearly 46 billion yuan (US$6.7 million).

🔗 Source: South China Morning Post

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Nio posts its first profit while costs rise

Nio turned profitable, yet input prices for memory chips and lithium carbonate still threaten vehicle margins 1.
Management expects China’s passenger vehicle market to dip a little in 2026, which complicates growth plans 1.
Its charging and battery swapping network keeps losing money because the buildout needs heavy upfront spending 1.
Receivables from related parties rose, mostly tied to its battery asset management company that handles batteries and financing, which may strain cash flow as battery-as-a-service (a subscription-style way to pay for and upgrade batteries) expands 1.

Battery swapping becomes a defensible advantage

The battery swapping network has passed 100 million swaps and is backed by more than 1,500 swap patents, which raises the hurdle for rivals 2.
Swap access adds service revenue beyond car sales, with users saving about 88 hours on average versus conventional EV charging 2.
Nearly 3,800 swap stations also act as distributed energy storage (a network that can store and release electricity across many locations), so Nio could later sell grid services by shifting loads 3.
Existing stations also support the multi-brand push since Onvo, its lower-priced brand, can use the network 2.