Morgan Stanley said SpaceX shares have fallen enough since the company’s mid-June US$86 billion initial public offering that investors may be assigning little or no value to its AI business.

The stock fell to US$110.85 earlier this week, 18% below its IPO price.

The view comes ahead of an August 6 lockup expiry, when 911.5 million shares held by early investors, executives, and other insiders are set to become eligible for trading. Another 455.8 million shares could also become eligible under certain conditions.

Large unlocks can also push newly listed tech stocks lower or increase volatility as investors anticipate more share supply.

IPO materials described SpaceX’s AI business as Starlink-linked edge AI computing.

The models point to about US$3.2 billion in 2025 revenue and more than US$300 billion by 2030, though the business’s structure and economics remain unclear.

The sell-off has also tracked a broader retreat in AI-linked tech stocks as investors worry about heavy spending, inflation, and fallout from the Iran war.

Data show nearly 80% of analysts covering SpaceX rate the stock a buy, and Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas kept a US$300 target.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg