Micron shares jump 10% on AI-driven Q1 beat

Micron Technology’s stock rose 10% after the company beat Wall Street’s Q1 estimates and issued higher guidance, driven by rising demand for AI memory chips.

The US-based firm, which makes memory storage for computers and AI servers, reported adjusted earnings of $4.8 per share on US$13.6 billion in revenue, above analyst expectations.

Micron expects Q2 revenue of about US$18.7 billion, also exceeding forecasts.

The company raised its capital expenditure outlook to US$20 billion and said gross margins would reach 68% as memory prices increase.

Micron projected that the total addressable market for high-bandwidth memory could hit US$100 billion by 2028, with an annual growth rate of 40%.

🔗 Source: CNBC

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Micron High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) outlook hinges on customer qualifications versus SK hynix and Samsung

HBM demand is surging as Micron projects a US$100 billion market by 2028, yet investors lack visibility on qualifications and capacity allocation, leaving the 68% gross margin guide uncertain between a lasting lead or temporary supply gaps 1.
The company is ramping 12-high HBM3E (12 memory dies per stack) stacks with good yields, and HBM4 sampling targets 2026 volume, though which hyperscaler customers (large cloud providers) have qualified (formally certified for use) is undisclosed 2.
Analysts say Samsung is delayed in Nvidia certification for HBM3E 12-high and is still maturing HBM4 yields (stable, high manufacturing yields), which currently boosts Micron pricing power with share gains 2.

Vendors should focus on Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) chokepoints growing through 2026

Advanced packaging is the bottleneck, with Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate (CoWoS) and Ajinomoto Build-up Film (ABF) substrates tight into 2026 3. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) aims to top 90,000 CoWoS wafers a month by 2026 3. That build needs tools for silicon interposers plus through-silicon vias, redistribution layers, and flip-chip bonding 3.
ABF substrate makers Unimicron, Ibiden, plus Nanya Printed Circuit Board (PCB) hold over 85% share, prices are up 30% to 50% since mid-2020 due to shortages, and the market climbs from US$4.4 billion in 2021 to US$6.5 billion by 2028 4.
Pitch outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) firms adding panel-level packaging (processing larger panels for higher throughput) and substrate makers expanding lines for earlier entry than waiting for AI accelerator or server buyers to turn HBM demand into orders.