🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Regulatory headwinds could derail the forecasted ad revenue race

• The forecast may downplay legal threats that could reshape how both companies run ads before 2026 1.
• A US federal court ruled that Google violated the Sherman Antitrust Act, a US competition law, by willfully acquiring and maintaining monopoly power in online ad technology. Penalties or limits may follow, though the ruling alone does not order a breakup 2.
• Meta faces an antitrust trial from the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), the main US consumer protection and competition regulator. If the FTC wins, Meta could have to separate Instagram or WhatsApp, which support its advertising system 1.
• The cases target business structures that underpin the revenue outlook in the Emarketer forecast 3.

The ad revenue battle fuels privacy risks and market-altering remedies

• The ad race can bring spillover harms, since large platforms can pack in more ads and degrade the user experience while keeping most of their audience 4.
• A WIRED investigation found Google’s Display & Video 360 (DV360) (an advertising buying platform for marketers) offered sensitive audience categories. Marketers could target devices tied to chronic illnesses or national security-related decision-makers, despite Google’s policies against using sensitive information. Separately, Google chief marketing officer (CMO) Lorraine Twohill wrote internally that real time bidding on user data = bad 5.
• Regulators and academics are weighing tougher fixes. One option is interoperability, which would push Google’s platforms to work more easily with rival ad tech providers so outside ad networks can operate alongside Google’s core services and earn money from services Google offers free to users 6.
• Tougher privacy laws can carry unintended tradeoffs. They could hurt consumers or tilt competition in online advertising 7.