Meituan set for first loss since 2022 as delivery price war heats up

Meituan is expected to post its first quarterly loss since 2022, as intense price competition in China’s food delivery sector weighs on its profits.

The Beijing-based company, which operates a leading food delivery platform, is projected by analysts to report a net loss of 14.8 billion yuan (US$2.1 billion) for Q3 2025.

Meituan’s market share in on-demand delivery is forecast to drop from 73% in 2024 to 55% by 2027, while Alibaba and JD.com are expanding their presence, according to Morningstar.

Meituan’s stock is down over 30% this year, making it the worst performer on the Hang Seng Tech Index.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Meituan’s Q3 losses stem from subsidizing 75% of new orders that don’t cover costs

Worsening food delivery unit economics, not non-operating items, drove the expected RMB 15.9–17.0 billion adjusted net loss in Q3 2025 1.
Profit per order dropped from RMB 1.48 in Q3 2024 to a loss of RMB 2.8, and the segment posted an operational loss of RMB 19–20.6 billion 1.
Three out of four new orders came from subsidies and had average order value below RMB 15, which could not cover delivery and subsidy costs 1.
Rivalry with Alibaba’s Ele.me (food delivery) and Taobao Flash Purchase (on-demand retail-to-home) plus JD.com, a Chinese e-commerce platform, pushed Meituan to defend share with money-losing prices 1.
Subsidies likely peak this quarter. Q4 losses may narrow yet stay high at RMB 8.3–16 billion 1.

Keeta’s Brazil and Middle East launches create opportunities for local firms

Meituan launched Keeta in Brazil in Santos and São Vicente, with São Paulo next. It also expanded into the Middle East, creating immediate demand for local infrastructure 1.
Payment processors, logistics partners, and compliance consultants can win work as Keeta leans on subsidies early. JPMorgan sees new-business losses widening from RMB 2.3–2.4 billion to over RMB 3 billion in coming quarters 1.
Marketing agencies and customer acquisition platforms in Brazil see opportunity as Keeta competes with Didi’s 99Food (the food-delivery arm of Didi’s Brazilian ’99’ brand), which requires ongoing promotions 1.
Timing is immediate. Keeta already operates in Santos and São Vicente, so this is not future speculation 1.