🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Record shipments may mask a looming price correction in memory markets

• In February 2024 the export volume index for computers, electronic and optical equipment jumped 29.9%. The overall export price index in Korean won (KRW) rose 7.0% year on year in November 2024 12.
• Goldman Sachs expects High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) prices to fall by double digits in 2026 as supply beats demand; it cut its 2026 market view by 13% to US$45 billion; growth now sits at 25% year on year, down from 45% 3.
• Economic Daily News (a Taiwan-based business newspaper) cites analysts who see Samsung’s HBM shipments rising about 20% yearly by 2026 while Chinese memory chipmakers close tech gaps; semiconductors accounted for 23% of South Korea’s exports in January–September 2025, heightening exposure to memory cycles (the boom-bust swings typical of memory pricing) 34.

Memory buyers can time procurement using forward price signals

• TrendForce expects Double Data Rate 5 (DDR5) contract prices to rise 18 to 23% in 4Q25 and keep climbing through 1H26 5. Cloud and enterprise IT teams can lock in server memory contracts before more increases.
• HBM3e (a newer generation of HBM used in AI accelerators) prices fall year over year in 2026 in TrendForce’s view, given more competition and healthy inventories; Goldman Sachs also flags oversupply with double digit declines, which favors later 2026 buys for AI rollouts 53.
• Recent talks put 2025 HBM price hikes at 5 to 10% despite HBM3e through-silicon via (TSV) yields of 40 to 60% plus limited supplier qualifications (customer approvals to ship); paired with 2026 oversupply warnings, this hints at price relief as yields improve and suppliers qualify 63.