JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin production costs fall to $77k

JPMorgan analysts estimate that Bitcoin’s production cost support level has dropped from $90,000 to $77,000 since the start of 2026, following a decline in network hashrate and mining difficulty.

The drop in difficulty, which is the steepest since China’s 2021 mining ban, is cited to lower Bitcoin prices and severe winter storms in the US, especially Texas, which temporarily shut down large mining operations.

The analysts expect a rebound in hashrate and mining difficulty at the next network adjustment, potentially raising production costs.

They noted that recent difficulty drops often indicate miners exiting the market, with some selling Bitcoin holdings to cover costs.

The drop has allowed more efficient miners to gain market share as higher-cost miners shut down, and the analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s outlook in 2026.

🔗 Source: The Block

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Bitcoin mining’s economic pressure cooker finally boiled over

Miners began leaving after what many called the toughest profitability stretch on record in 2025, following the April 2024 halving that cut block rewards in half 1.
Hashprice, a common measure of daily miner revenue per unit of computing power, slid below a rough sustainability level near $40 per petahash per day (PH/day) and later reached an all-time spot low of $33.31 per petahash per day (PH/day) 2, 3.
The slump moved the industry from expansion to survival mode, with even efficient public miners like CleanSpark and IREN running at or near break-even. Reported total cash-based mining costs came in around $30/PH/s for CleanSpark and $26/PH/s for IREN 4.

Miner capitulation and what it could mean for investors

Some analysts treat the current miner capitulation as a possible long-term buying cue, since patterns they cite link past market bottoms to periods when miners had to shut down 5.
JPMorgan analysts say bitcoin trading below their estimated production cost has often acted as soft price support. They also frame miner shutdowns as a self-correcting mechanism, with production cost estimated near $77,000 6, 7.
JPMorgan also argues the episode could boost bitcoin’s appeal with institutional investors compared with gold. Gold has outperformed since October, while gold volatility has climbed, which JPMorgan says makes bitcoin look stronger on a long-term risk-adjusted basis 8.