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Japan aims for $253b domestic chip sales by 2040

Japan set a new target to boost annual sales of domestically made semiconductors to 40 trillion yen (US$253.04 billion) by 2040 under prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s growth investment strategy.

The 2040 goal rises from about 8 trillion yen (US$50.56 billion) now and extends a prior target of 15 trillion yen (US$94.80 billion) for 2030.

Chips are among dozens of products the government has designated as strategically important for economic security and will be the focus of expanded public investment, the government said while detailed roadmaps were finalized for next year’s budget planning.

Japan held roughly half of the global chip market in the 1980s but lost ground in the 1990s and now has under 10 percent market share.

The government said it must position the country to capture expansion driven by AI in the design and manufacturing of advanced chips.

🔗 Source: Reuters

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Japan’s ambition is backed by a $65 billion policy push

  • Japan plans to spend about $65 billion over the next decade to boost semiconductors and AI, which supports the sales goal 1.
  • Most funding flows to Rapidus, a public-private chip foundry (a company that manufactures chips for other companies) formed in 2022 with backing from eight large Japanese companies and the government 2.
  • Rapidus is working with IBM to reach mass production of 2-nanometer chips in 2027 3.
  • Legal changes would allow direct investment through the Information-Technology Promotion Agency (IPA), plus tax incentives and loan guarantees, which could make the state a large Rapidus shareholder 4.

The sales target is tied to a broader geopolitical play

  • The project aims to position Japan as a trusted source for advanced chips during supply chain disruptions 1.
  • Creating a national champion remains difficult since Intel and Samsung already compete with TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), which held 62% of the global foundry market in the first quarter of 2024 2.
  • Some analysts doubt demand for Rapidus’s fast-turnaround manufacturing niche, given an estimated initial investment of at least 5 trillion yen 2.
  • The approach also deepens Japan’s role in a U.S.-led tech alliance that already works to restrict exports of critical chipmaking equipment to China 5.

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