Indonesia is expected to report a trade surplus for April, marking 60 consecutive months of trade surpluses, though a decline from the previous month is anticipated.

The median estimate for April’s trade surplus is US$2.73 billion, down from March’s US$4.33 billion.  April exports are projected to grow by 5.1% year-on-year, while imports are forecasted to rise by 6.54%.

Analysts say the increased trade activity in April reflects the end of Ramadan, which limited operations in March due to shortened work hours.

Economist Hosianna Evalia Situmorang from Bank Danamon highlighted risks that could affect future surpluses, such as uncertainty around US tariffs.

Rising imports of energy, food, and strategic manufacturing goods, potentially pressuring monthly trade balances by US$125 million to US$170 million.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg Technoz

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ Indonesia’s consistent trade surplus highlights economic resilience amid global pressures

Indonesia’s five-year unbroken record of trade surpluses demonstrates remarkable economic resilience during a period of significant global disruption.

The country maintained this positive trade balance even as its 2023 surplus declined to $29.86 billion, representing a substantial 36.09% drop from the previous year1.

While export growth has been volatile, with total exports reaching $298.18 billion in 2023 but declining 7.75% from 2022 levels, Indonesia has still managed to sustain its trade surplus through diverse export sectors2.

The consistent surplus reflects Indonesia’s strategic position in global supply chains, though the declining margins suggest potential challenges ahead as global trade dynamics continue to shift.

2️⃣ US tariff threats create significant vulnerability for Indonesia’s trade outlook

The announced 32% US tariff on Indonesian exports represents a substantial threat to Indonesia’s trade surplus streak, potentially disrupting a key economic relationship.

Indonesia maintained a $16.8 billion trade surplus with the US in 2024, making it a crucial market for Indonesian exports that now faces significant pressure3.

This exposure is particularly concerning given that US-Indonesia trade volume reached approximately $38.3 billion in 2024, with US imports from Indonesia totaling $28.1 billion – a sizeable portion now at risk from tariffs4.