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India’s smartphone market peaks as iPhone 16 leads shipments
India’s smartphone market hit a five-year high in Q3 2025, with shipments rising 4.3% year-on-year to 48 million units, according to IDC.
Apple shipped 5 million iPhones, reaching its highest-ever quarterly shipments in the country, and ranking fourth for the first time.
The iPhone 16 was the most-shipped smartphone in India, contributing 5% of total market shipments, while the iPhone 17 series and iPhone Air accounted for 16% of Apple’s Q3 shipments—the strongest launch quarter for any iPhone since 2021.
Samsung led the market, followed by Oppo and OnePlus.
The mid-premium segment rose 10.7% year-on-year, with the Galaxy S24 making up nearly a quarter of shipments in this range.
IDC said aggressive festive deals and financing options boosted shipments, but mass market demand was weak, leading to high inventory heading into Q4.
Rising component costs and currency changes have pushed brands to raise prices after Diwali.
IDC forecasts a year-on-year shipment drop in Q4 2025, with total annual shipments likely to fall below 150 million units.
The average smartphone selling price in Q3 reached US$294, up 13.7% year-on-year.
🔗 Source: The Economic Times
🧠 Food for thought
Implications, context, and why it matters.
India’s smartphone market hides weak demand with inventory buildup
- Shipments hit 48.4 million in Q3 2025 1, yet vendors preloaded channels for festivals rather than end-user demand 1. IDC flags high inventory into Q4, so shipments may fall, and it pegs 2025 below 150 million 1.
- Post-Diwali hikes from component costs and currency moves will hit volume, with rural demand steady but too small to offset urban weakness 1.
- Apple shipped a record 5 million, while Samsung held share in mid-premium via financing and trade-ins 1, which likely pulled demand forward and leaves Q4 2025 at risk of a correction.
Rising prices and affordability gaps will accelerate trade-in and refurbished smartphone adoption
- Recommerce platforms (marketplaces that buy and resell used devices) plus refurbished sellers face a squeeze as ASP rose 13.7%. Refurbished sales grew 5% in H1 2025, with Apple up 19% 2, helped by verified devices with warranties 3. Partner with offline retail and finance to reach buyers priced out of new premium phones.
- Logistics plus warranty firms can ride rising demand for verified devices with warranty coverage 3. Trade-in values stay firm or rise as supply of newer refurbished models is tight 3. Expand collection, grading, and certification for iPhone 13–15 owners upgrading to newer models 1.
- Fintech companies can build micro-installment products (small-ticket loans repaid over short tenures) for refurbished buys. Pro iPhones hold a larger share in secondary markets than in new segments 3, creating financing needs for buyers of premium refurbished over new flagships.
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