Goldman Sachs has raised its estimate of the probability of a United States recession within the next 12 months to 45%.

This is an increase from 35% last week.

This change follows President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs that have had significant economic effects.

The investment bank, led by economist Jan Hatzius, identified three main factors contributing to the revised forecast.

These include tightened financial conditions, a decline in foreign tourism to the US, and increased policy uncertainty reminiscent of the previous trade war.

🔗 Source: Yahoo Finance

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