Global smartphone shipments predicted to fall 2.1% in 2026

Global smartphone shipments are expected to fall 2.1% in 2026, reversing an estimated 3.3% rise this year, according to Counterpoint Research.

The industry tracker said a shortage of memory chips is pushing up component costs and limiting production.

Counterpoint now projects a 6.9% global rise in average handset prices next year due to a 10% to 25% surge in component costs.

Semiconductor makers are prioritizing advanced memory chips for AI hardware, leading to shortages of dynamic random access memory used in smartphones and other electronics.

The supply crunch is expected to hit Chinese smartphone brands like Honor and Oppo hardest, especially for entry-level models.

Companies such as Xiaomi and Lenovo have begun stockpiling memory, while others warn of possible price hikes.

Counterpoint noted that Apple and Samsung are likely to withstand the impact better than competitors with lower margins.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Samsung with SK hynix control 70% of DRAM, choosing profit over expansion. Samsung is shipping 70% of orders as SK hynix shifts half of commodity output to newer tech that will not meet demand 1.
DRAM prices quadrupled in 2025, with 4GB DDR4x rising from $7 to over $30 by mid November 2. Samsung signed 4Q contracts 40% above the prior quarter 1.
AI servers soak up wafer lines for High Bandwidth Memory and enterprise DDR5, limiting smartphone DRAM 2. Mid to low end phones that use DDR4x face the worst squeeze as DDR4 stays mainstream for three years 2.
New phone prices could rise 6.9% worldwide in 2026 as memory costs climb, per Counterpoint Research 3. Makers absorbed an 8–10% per device cost jump in 2025, with another 5–7% likely in 2026 3.
Shoppers in emerging markets will feel the pinch as entry brands such as Honor or Oppo struggle to secure memory 3. Smaller makers may trim output, which pushes share toward leaders 4.
Recommerce platforms (online marketplaces that buy and resell refurbished devices) can grow by focusing on regions with large sub $200 segments 5. Device diagnostics providers (software and services that test and certify used phones) may expand with that demand 5. Refurbished smartphone financing companies (lenders offering installment plans for certified pre‑owned devices) benefit too 5. Trade‑in programs are already aggressive 5, which creates supply for refurbishers as premium buyers upgrade while budget shoppers shift to certified pre‑owned to dodge hikes.