Global smartphone market to rise 1.5% on record Apple sales: report

Global smartphone shipments are expected to rise 1.5% in 2025 to 1.25 billion units, according to research firm International Data Corporation (IDC).

IDC forecasts Apple will ship a record 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, up 6.1% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in China, the US, and Western Europe.

The report notes that Apple led China’s smartphone market in October and November with over 20% share, prompting IDC to revise its Q4 forecast for Apple in China from 9% to 17% year-on-year growth.

IDC now expects China’s overall smartphone shipments to rise 3% in 2025, reversing an earlier projection of a 1% drop.

Looking ahead, IDC predicts global smartphone shipments will drop 0.9% in 2026 due to memory component shortages and changes in product release cycles.

🔗 Source: International Data Corporation

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

China rebound tied to iPhone momentum, yet IDC vendor breakdown is missing

China’s smartphone market moved from a projected 1% drop to 3% growth on iPhone strength, with Apple above 20% share and first in Oct-Nov 1. IDC leaves out impacts for Samsung, Xiaomi, OPPO, and Huawei. We cannot tell if gains came from new demand or share shifts.
China may grow about 3% in 2025, while Q4 iPhone is now +17% year on year 1, which hints at share losses for some brands without brand splits to confirm.
How long this upswing lasts hinges on the source of demand. IDC’s brand breakdown with shipments plus share would show who lost ground, by how much.

Memory shortage and rising Average Selling Prices (ASPs) open room for refurbished platforms

A 2026 memory squeeze lifts Average Selling Prices (ASPs) to US$465 1 as refurbished sales grew 5% in 2024 with Apple holding 56% 2. Recommerce platforms that buy, certify, and resell phones can catch buyers shifting to certified pre-owned options. Trade-in firms plus financing providers can too.
Logistics and warranty firms face newer models in refurbished sales, with 5G rising from 28% to 42% 2. Reverse supply chains are the processes to collect and grade used devices then repair then redistribute them. These workflows need more capacity plus testing and longer warranties.
Component shortages hit low to mid range Android devices hardest 3, pushing budget buyers to refurbished flagships, which helps refurbishers (companies that restore used devices for resale) in emerging markets.