A new report by Momentum Works and Lazada indicates that generative AI could contribute up to US$131 billion annually to Southeast Asia’s ecommerce sector.

The findings suggest that integrating AI throughout the ecommerce value chain could increase the region’s gross merchandise value (GMV) to US$413 billion by 2030.

The report, titled “Transforming Ecommerce with AI: Sell Smarter and Shop Better,” outlines three scenarios for AI adoption in ecommerce: high, medium, and low.

Under the high adoption scenario, ecommerce penetration in the region could reach 24%. This highlights significant growth opportunities.

Generative AI tools, including personalized engines, dynamic pricing algorithms, and predictive logistics, are identified as key factors driving this change.

The report also highlights a performance gap between early adopters of AI and those who have not yet integrated it.

🔗 Source: Momentum Works

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ The e-commerce adoption gap mirrors historical technology transition patterns

Southeast Asia’s e-commerce landscape shows a striking disparity: 91% of consumers use AI for discovery while only 26% of sellers have integrated it into operations, according to the Momentum Works and Lazada report.

This adoption gap follows historical patterns seen throughout e-commerce evolution, from the hesitant uptake of online selling in the late 1990s to subsequent waves of digital transformation.

In 1998, only 1% of Canadian retail trade was online despite projected growth to 4.6% by 2003, showing how businesses historically lag behind available technology and consumer adoption 1.

The current transition from “E-commerce 3.0” (focused on customer-centricity) to an AI-native paradigm represents the fourth major evolution in e-commerce’s development since its origins in the 1960s with Electronic Data Interchange systems 2.

Research across multiple markets identifies common adoption barriers: high implementation costs, time-consuming integration processes, and talent gaps—suggesting these are fundamental challenges rather than region-specific issues 345.

2️⃣ Southeast Asia’s uneven AI development creates regional competitive dynamics

The projected US$131 billion in additional value must be understood within Southeast Asia’s highly uneven AI investment landscape.