US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick expressed optimism about a potential US-India trade agreement.

He said during a Washington summit that the deal may be reached soon.

Lutnick noted India could gain better terms by acting before other countries.

He said that earlier deals tend to be more favorable.

However, no timeline or details of the agreement have been revealed.

🔗 Source: Bloomberg

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ US-India trade negotiations follow decade of complex relations

The current optimism about a US-India trade deal follows over a decade of challenging trade relations and incomplete negotiations between the two countries.

In 2014, the US and India reached an agreement on trade facilitation and food security within the WTO framework, marking an early significant trade collaboration between the Obama and Modi administrations 1.

Trade tensions escalated during previous administrations when the US terminated India’s Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) status in 2019, affecting $5.6 billion worth of Indian exports that previously entered the US duty-free 2.

In response to US tariffs on steel and aluminum, India imposed retaliatory tariffs on 28 US products, including almonds, apples, and steel, targeting goods worth approximately $1.4 billion 3.

Despite these challenges, both countries have consistently recognized the importance of their trade relationship, with a joint statement in 2025 highlighting the goal of doubling bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030 4.

2️⃣ India’s growing economic significance drives renewed US interest

India has emerged as a crucial trading partner for the US, becoming America’s 10th largest goods trading partner in 2024 and accounting for 2.4% of total US trade 4.

From the Indian perspective, the US has become even more significant, serving as India’s largest goods trading partner and representing 10.8% of India’s total trade volume 4.