Coinbase said to launch prediction market, rivals Robinhood

Coinbase is preparing to launch an in-house prediction market powered by Kalshi, according to a source.

The formal announcement may come as early as next week, though Coinbase has not confirmed the reports or provided a timeline.

Kalshi will be the sole prediction markets operator working with Coinbase at launch, but the partnership is not exclusive.

The move comes as Coinbase looks to expand beyond digital assets amid cooling investor sentiment in the crypto market.

Competitors such as Robinhood, Gemini, and Kraken have explored prediction markets and tokenized equities over the past year.

Kalshi, a US-based operator, has already embedded its event contracts into platforms like Robinhood and is in talks with multiple brokerages to grow its reach.

🔗 Source: CNBC

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

CFTC approval doesn’t mean all prediction markets are fair game for Coinbase

Kalshi has run as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) designated contract market since 2020, offering binary event contracts (yes/no markets that pay out if a stated event occurs) across politics, economics and sports 1. The regulator can review and block some events under 17 C.F.R. § 40.11. A federal court vacated the agency’s political-contracts order in 2024, and the CFTC dropped its appeal in 2025 1.
Connecticut with Nevada issued cease and desist orders over sports contracts 2. New Jersey with Maryland did as well 2. They say the contracts violate state gambling laws despite CFTC oversight 2. Federal judges disagree on whether the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) overrides state power, which leaves the law unsettled 3.
For Coinbase, risk extends past federal approval. The exchange faces possible state enforcement, similar to Kalshi’s fights in at least six states 2. Revenue hinges on which event types hold up across jurisdictions.

Fintech platforms can integrate Kalshi’s event contracts through available APIs and partnership programs

Kalshi offers REST (Representational State Transfer) and WebSocket APIs for real-time data and order flow 4. Public endpoints need no authentication for basic information 4. Institutions that meet 7.5% of total exchange volume can connect over Financial Information eXchange (FIX) 5.
Kalshi’s Coinbase deal is non-exclusive so brokerages, neobanks, and media apps can integrate too 1. The company is talking with several brokers beyond Coinbase, and contracts already appear in Robinhood 1.
Rivals can follow quickly. Kalshi hit a record $4.54 billion in monthly volume in November 2025, and weekly trading now tops $1 billion, up over 1,000% since 2024 2. Teams can use developer docs and Software Development Kits (SDKs) in Python and TypeScript 6 or reach the institutional team for entity onboarding and tailored integration help 5.