China’s Meituan sees up to $3.5b loss in 2025

China’s Meituan has forecast a loss between 23.3 billion and 24.3 billion yuan (US$3.5 billion) for 2025, citing ongoing industry competition, according to a filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

It expects its domestic ecommerce business to shift from an operating profit to an operating loss in 2025.

Increased spending on marketing, discounts, and incentives for delivery workers were cited as factors contributing to mounting losses.

Meituan expects losses to continue into at least Q1 2026 due to persistent competition and said it has sufficient cash to support its operations. Its shares have decreased nearly 50% amid concerns over profit margins.

The company has also expanded internationally, including launches in Brazil and Saudi Arabia.

🔗 Source: South China Morning Post

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Meituan expects a 2025 loss while it spends to compete

The 2025 loss forecast comes after a strong first quarter. Revenue rose 18.1% and adjusted net profit more than doubled to 10.9 billion yuan 1.
Meituan is pouring money into subsidies to match JD.com and Alibaba’s Ele.me. Each rival has announced 10 billion yuan in food delivery subsidies for 2025 1.
It has room to absorb the hit, with cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments of 141.3 billion yuan as of September 30, 2025 2.

Subsidies are also a fight over on-demand retail

Meituan is also funding overseas growth, including launching the Keeta food delivery platform in Brazil and Saudi Arabia. CEO Wang Xing said Keeta in Hong Kong became profitable in October 2025, ahead of the original three-year plan 3.
The pressure reaches beyond meals into on-demand retail, including groceries and high-value electronics. CFO chen shaohui said Meituan has a “strong competitive advantage” in quick commerce (fast delivery of local retail goods), stronger than its food delivery edge 3.
This spending spree raises the bar for challengers and incumbents alike. It also makes profits harder to count on for platform businesses in other markets.