China's humanoid robot boom faces five-year wait for mass use

China’s robotics industry may need at least five years before humanoid robots reach mass acceptance similar to EVs, according to Hermitage Capital.

The sector raised over US$8.2 billion in 2025, up more than 170% year on year, with around 30 companies across the robotics value chain filing for IPOs in Hong Kong, ITjuzi data shows.

Hermitage Capital said current humanoid robots face technical limits, especially in motion control and autonomous task completion, with few able to operate independently.

Industry leaders and regulators have warned of a potential bubble, as investment surges, talent is spread across many startups, and R&D resources remain limited, despite fresh government funding to support long-term growth.

🔗 Source: South China Morning Post

🧠 Food for thought

Implications, context, and why it matters.

Reliability and uptime decide whether humanoids see wide use

Most humanoid robots deliver 30-40% of human worker productivity and run only 2-3 hours per charge before a recharge or swap 1, which is too low for broad replacement.
Robotics firms stage demos like robots dancing at galas 2 or running marathons 1. The hard part for real use is motion control and autonomous task completion in unstructured settings.
Some makers target 500 units a year 1. Output in mature sectors like electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing sits far higher, so the gap remains large.

Buyers can use new standards to cut risk in early trials

China approved work on its first national standards for humanoid robots in 2025 3. The scope covers environmental perception, decision-making, motion control and task execution. Procurement teams can use this framework during vendor selection.
Industrial buyers in manufacturing and logistics can tie vendor contracts to these standards. Use compliance benchmarks as performance gates, not vague promises about future features.
The Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, a government-backed research consortium, launched the “Tiangong” and “Huisi Kaiwu” platforms as reference architectures 3. Developed with open-source (publicly available code) and open-access strategies, these give buyers a template to test whether vendor solutions match standardized technical approaches or rely on proprietary lock-in.