Electric heavy trucks are rapidly gaining ground in China, cutting diesel use and reshaping oil demand in the world’s top crude importer.

In the first half of 2025, new energy truck sales rose 175% year-on-year to 76,100 units, making up about 25% of new truck sales, according to Sublime China Information (SCI).

Over 90% of this growth came from electric trucks, mainly used in ports, mines, and steel mills.

This surge has led SCI to project a 6.3% drop in diesel consumption this year, with further declines expected.

Rystad Energy now sees China’s oil consumption peaking in 2025.

Charging infrastructure is expanding quickly, with EV charging provider Teld building over 2,400 truck charging stations and launching an 800-kilometer corridor.

Government subsidies of up to 95,000 yuan (US$13,252) per vehicle have also boosted adoption.

🔗 Source: Reuters

🧠 Food for thought

1️⃣ China’s commercial vehicle electrification is accelerating peak oil forecasts

The rapid electrification of China’s heavy-duty truck sector represents a significant inflection point in the country’s oil consumption patterns.

Analysts at Rystad Energy have revised their forecasts, now expecting China’s oil demand to peak in 2025 rather than 2026, directly attributable to the unexpected surge in electric truck adoption 1.

The transport sector, which consumes approximately two-thirds of all diesel in China, is projected to use 40% less diesel by 2030, resulting in a 25% overall reduction in diesel consumption compared to 2024 levels 1.

This acceleration follows a consistent pattern of decline, with diesel consumption already down 6.3% in 2024, matching the previous year’s drop, according to SCI consulting 2.

The trend is particularly significant because commercial vehicles historically represent a challenging segment for electrification due to their heavy payloads and long-distance requirements.

China’s success in this sector suggests that countries following similar electrification roadmaps may experience faster-than-expected transitions away from petroleum fuels.